Professor Naohiro Ogawa (Research Adviser) Human Development Science


Population Economics

Professor Naohiro Ogawa
Introduction to Human Development
Demographics of Human Resources
Seminar of Demographics of Human Resources
Project of Special Lecture I
Project of Special Lecture II
Project of Special Research I
Project of Special Research II
Education University of Hawaii, PhD in Economics
Instructor, Department of Economics, University of Hawaii
Research Associate, East-West Population Institute
Population Officer, United Nations Economic and
Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
Professor of Economics, College of Economics,
Nihon University
Professor of Economics, Graduate School of Economics,
Nihon University
Deputy Director, Population Research Institute,
Nihon University
Member of the editorial board for
the Journal of Pension Economics and Finance
Member of the international advisory board of
Asian Population Studies

Retherford, R.D., and N. Ogawa. 2006. Japan 's baby bust: causes, implications, and policy responses. In F. Harris (ed.). The Baby Bust: Who Will Do the Work? Who Will Pay the Taxes? Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, Inc.: 5-47.

Ogawa, N., 2005 (forthcoming). Population aging and policy options for a sustainable future: the case of Japan. Genus.
Ogawa, N., et al. 2005 (forthcoming). Health and its impact on work and dependency among the elderly in Japan. Asian Population Studies.
Ogawa, N., et al. 2005 (forthcoming). Japan's transition from the demographic bonus to the demographic onus. Asian Population Studies.
Ogawa, N., R.D.Retherford, and R. Matsukura. 2006. Demographics of the Japanese family: entering uncharted territory. In M. Rebick and, A. Takenaka (eds.). The Changing Definition of the Japanese Family in the 1990s. Routledge.19-38
Ogawa, N., and N. Takayama. 2005 (forthcoming). Demography and ageing. In G. Clark, A. Munnell, and M. Orszag (eds.). The Oxford Handbook of Pensions and Retirement Income. Oxford University Press.

Ogawa, N. 2005. Demographic Dynamics in Japan, in Regional Sustainable Development Review: Japan, from Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), Developed under the Auspices of the UNESCO, Eolss Publishers, Oxford, UK, (http://www.eolss.net).

Ogawa, N. 2004. Urban-rural differentials in health conditions and labor force participation among the Japanese elderly. Geriatrics and Gerontology International, 4, S60-S62.
Ogawa, N. 2004. Ageing trends and policy responses in the ESCAP region. Population and Development: Selected Issues: 89-127.
Ogawa, N. 2003. Japan's changing fertility mechanisms and its policy responses. Journal of Population Research, 20: 89-106.
Ogawa, N. 2003. Population aging and its impact on the socioeconomic system in Japan. Aging in Japan 2003: 123-150.
Ogawa, N. 2002. Globalization and its impact on the timing of births in Japan. Southeast Asian Studies, 40: 401-405.
Ogawa, N. 2002. Social security viewed from a demographic perspective: prospects and problems. Japan Medical Association Journal, 45: 161-167.
Ogawa, N., and S. Ichimura. 2002. Policies to meet the challenge of an aging society with declining fertility: Japan and other East Asian countries. East Asian Economic Perspectives, 13: 52-84.
Mason, A., and N. Ogawa. 2002. Population, labor force, saving and Japan's future. In M. Blomström, B. Gangnes, and S. La Croix (eds.). Japan's New Economy: Continuity and Change in the Twenty-First Century. Cambridge University Press: 48-74.
Retherford, R.D., N. Ogawa, and R. Matsukura. 2001. Late marriage and less marriage in Japan. Population and Development Review, 27: 65-102.
Retherford, R.D., N. Ogawa, and S. Sakamoto. 1999. Values and fertility change in Japan. In R. Leete (ed.). Dynamics of Values in Fertility Change. Oxford University Press: 121-147.
Ogawa, N., and J. Bauer. 1999. The impact of married women's labor supply on the distribution of family income in Japan. NUPRI Research Paper Series, 66.
Ogawa, N. 1998. Changing trends in marriage - a silent revolution in Japan and other Asian countries. The Future of the Family. Mainichi Newspapers.
Ogawa, N. 1998. The socioeconomic consequences of population aging in Japan, NIRA Review, Autumn: 3-7.
Clark, R.L., and N. Ogawa. 1997. Transitions from career jobs to retirement in Japan. Industrial Relations, 36: 255-270.
Ogawa, N., and R.D. Retherford. 1997. Shifting costs of caring for the elderly back to families in Japan. Population and Development Review, 23: 59-94.
Clark, R.L., and N. Ogawa. 1996. Public attitudes and concerns about population aging in Japan. Ageing and Society, 16: 443-465.
Mason, A., R. Racelis, K. Nagashima, T. Fukui, and N. Ogawa. 1996. Household Projections for Japan, 1990-2025: An Extension of the HOMES Model. Report published by Japan Statistical Association, Nihon University Population Research Institute, and East-West Center.
Clark, R.L., and N. Ogawa. 1996. Human resource policies and older workers in Japan. The Gerontologist, 36: 627-636.
Ogawa, N., and J.F. Ermisch. 1996. Family structure, home time demands and the employment patterns of Japanese married women. Journal of Labor Economics, 14: 677-702.
Ogawa, N., and R. Matsukura. 1996. Demographic characteristics in selected Asian countries: trends and prospects. In Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) (ed.). Migration and the Labour Market in Asia: Prospects for the Year 2000: 29-45.
Ogawa, N., and R. Matsukura. 1995. Population change, development and women's role and status in Japan. Asian Population Studies Series. United Nations, 133: 1-94.
Ogawa, N., and R.L. Clark. 1995. Earnings patterns of Japanese women: 1976-88. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 43: 293-314.
Ermisch, J.F., and N. Ogawa. 1994. Age at motherhood in Japan. Journal of Population Economics, 7: 393-420.
Mason, A., Y. Teh, T. Fukui, and N. Ogawa. 1994. The inter-generational distribution of resources and income in Japan. In J.F. Ermisch, N. Ogawa (eds.). The Family, the Market, and the State in Ageing Societies. Clarendon Press: 158-197.
Ogawa, N., and J.F. Ermisch. 1994. Women's career development and divorce risk in Japan. Labour, 8: 193-219.
Ogawa, N. and R.W. Hodge. 1994. Patrilocality, childbearing, and the labour supply and earning power of married Japanese women. In J.F. Ermisch and N. Ogawa (eds.). The Family, the Market, and the State in Ageing Societies. Clarendon Press: 105-131.
Ogawa, N., N. Poapongsakorn, and A. Mason. 1993. Forecasts of health care costs. In A. Mason, B.O. Campbell, and E. Pernia (eds.). The Economic Impact of Demographic Change in Thailand, 1980-2015. University of Hawaii Press: 229-261.
Ogawa, N., and R.D. Retherford. 1993. The resumption of fertility decline in Japan: 1973-92. Population Development Review, 19: 703-741.
Ogawa, N. 1993. Impact of changes in population and household structure upon the allocation of medical resources in Japan. Japan and the World Economy, 5: 137-156.
Mason, A., T. Fukui, and N. Ogawa. 1992. Household Projections for Japan, 1985-2025: A Transition Model of Headship Rates. Report published by Japan Statistical Association, Nihon University Population Research Institute, and East-West Center.
Clark, R.L., and N. Ogawa. 1992. Employment tenure and earnings profiles in Japan and the United States: Comments. American Economic Review, 82: 336-345.
Clark, R.L., and N. Ogawa. 1992. Mandatory retirement and earnings profiles in Japan. Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 45: 258-266.
Ogawa, N. 1992. Resources for the elderly in economic development. In H. Keding, A. Hashimoto and L. Coppard (eds.). Family Support to the Elderly: The International Experience. Oxford University Press: 258-266.
Ogawa, N. 1990. Economic factors affecting the health of the elderly. In R. Kane, J.G. Evans, and D. Macfadyen (eds.). Improving the Health of Older People: A World View. Oxford University Press: 627-646.
Martin, L.G., and N. Ogawa. 1988. The effect of cohort size on relative wages in Japan. In R.D. Lee, B.W. Arthur, and G. Rodgers (eds.). Economics of Changing Age Distributions in Developed Countries. Clarendon Press: 59-75.
Tuljapurkar, S., and N. Ogawa (eds.). 2006 (forthcoming). Riding the Age Waves: Responses to Aging in Advanced Industrial States. Kluwer.
Ermisch, J.F., and N. Ogawa (eds.). 1994. The Family, the Market, and the State in Ageing Societies. Clarendon Press.
Ogawa, N., G. Jones, and J. Williamson (eds.). 1993. Human Resources and Development Along the Asia- Pacific Rim. Oxford University Press.
Hodge, R.W., and N. Ogawa. 1991. Fertility Change in Contemporary Japan. University of Chicago Press.
Hauser, P.M., D.B. Suits, and N. Ogawa (eds.). 1985. Urbanization and Migration in ASEAN Development. University of Hawaii Press.
Research Theme
Population Trends in Aging, Fertility, Morbidity And Mortality, Age Structural Transitions, Household Savings, Female Labor Ratios, The Elderly in the Work Force, Social Security, and Intergenerational Transfer Accounts.
On-going Research Activities:
(1) As a principal researcher in a United Nations project implemented in 1980, I have been involved in the development and monitoring of a long-term population-economic-social security model for Japan. In the most recent version of this model, a stochastic mechanism, the first one of its kind, has been incorporated into its fertility, mortality, and technological change. A simplified schematic chart for this econometric model is shown in Figure 1 below.
(2) With financial support from NIH and UNFPA, I have recently embarked on a large-scale age structural change study collaborating closely with economists from 14 countries that include both industrialized and developing nations. One of the primary objectives of this study is to analyze the impact of age structural change on both public and familial transfers in these 14 countries, with an attempt being made to compare differences between these countries over time. The participating countries include Japan, the United States, France, Brazil, China, India, Australia, Sweden, and others. Ronald Lee (University of California, Berkeley) and Andrew Mason (University of Hawaii) are co-principal investigators for this project, while Alan Auerbach (University of California, Berkeley, former Vice President of the American Economic Association) serves as a consultant. Findings derived from this study are expected to provide a powerful base for formulating effective policies to cope with the formidable challenges being posed by population aging. Figure 2 is one of the key graphical expositions highlighting the change in the life cycle deficit pattern for Taiwan in 1998.
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